Brock Osweiler would score you 24 points in a game of Scrabble, but since the use of proper nouns is frowned on by us traditionalist Brock will have stick to scoring points on NFL field’s around America instead. The 25 year old threw 10 touchdown passes in the 8 games he played last season, which is not particularly impressive but under Gary Kubiak’s stewardship the Broncos only threw 19 all season (a totally underwhelming TD pass % of 3.1, snore) so Brock’s number’s look pretty reasonable in that light. The Broncos won 5 of the 8 games Osweiler started last season and averaged a shade over 20 points per game (compared to 24 ppg in Peyton Manning’s 8 starts). When Manning retired it looked like the Broncos had a readymade replacement so when they decided that Osweiler could go to the Texans and draft Paxton Lynch instead more than a few heads were scratched.
For their part last season the Texans finished 9-7 and averaged 20 points per game, but they threw 29 touchdown passes (a TD% of 4.7). They did make the playoffs as winners of the AFC South but since no other AFC South team managed to finish the season with a winning record it wasn’t exactly worth shouting from the rooftops. Having drafted Ohio State standout Braxton Miller who will probably feature as a Wide Receiver opposite the blisteringly fast DeAndre Hopkins (who hauled in 11 of their TD passes last season), or in the slot, but has experience of playing at Quarterback in College so he could feature as a “Wildcat” QB. As a College Quarterback Miller was known for his elusive running may even appear in the backfield as a Running Back alongside Osweiler so the Texans have no shortage of talent and versatility in the “skill positions”. The area where you worry about the Texans Offence is up front; their Offensive line allowed 36 sacks last season and that contributed to the inconsistent performance of their Quarterback’s. Brian Hoyer, by his own admission was bad in his first game for the Texans (some would say he wasn’t particularly good all season but he finished with 19 TD passes and just 7 interceptions) but having been sacked 25 times in 2015 he ended the season having received 2 concussions, an injured wrist and a strained neck! Hoyer was sacked 6.3% of the times he dropped back to pass but Osweiler was sacked 7.7% of the times he dropped back for the Broncos last season and while the Broncos Offensive line was more comfortable run blocking more than a few of the 23 sacks on Osweiler were as a result of him not going through progressions quick enough or because he didn’t throw the ball away when nobody was open. At 6 feet 8 inches tall and weighing around 108 kgs Osweiler is no Braxton Miller when it comes to the dancing feet and jet heels so the Texans pass Offence may well take a while to fulfil its undoubted potential. If the addition of powerful Running Back Lamar Miller to the exciting Alfred Blue can provide the Texans with a balanced, or even run heavy Offence then they will have a real chance of winning the AFC South again.
By far the biggest plus for the Texans and the area where they have used more 1st round draft picks than you can shake a stick at is the Defensive front. With JJ Watt, JaDaveon Clowney, Vince Wilfork and Whitney Mercilus all pressurising opposing Quarterbacks they should be very difficult to score against. However last year they allowed n average just less 20 points per game and gave up 44 points to a capricious Miami Dolphins and 48 to the Falcons who finished the season 8-8! Allied to this concerning trend is the fact that Clowney has traditionally struggled for fitness and JJ Watt may miss the start of the season with a back injury.
Osweiler leaving the Broncos will be more of a problem for them than it will be for Osweiler, the Texans have plenty of tools that he can utilise to his own benefit. Even if Braxton Lynch is a revelation in Denver he won’t have stars like Hopkins and Miller around him, the AFC South should be a completely different kettle of fish this season with the Jaguars investing heavily during free agency and having a draft of a lifetime (plus their number 1 pick from the 2015 draft potentially playing his first NFL game this season having blown his knee out in training camp last season) and Andrew Luck actually being 100% healthy it promises to be a wild ride.