Usually when beginning one of these flights of fancy I have a rough handle on what will happen over the next 9 or so hours but, largely due to events in Rome on Sunday I’m absolutely bamboozled. I’d guess at 2 comfortable away wins because Ireland will be fired up after their indiscipline cost them the chance to snatch a result in Edinburgh at the death last week. In a similar fashion Italy could have won their opening game against Wales had they been able to capitalise on their large periods of territorial domination, but instead they allowed the Welsh to get a foothold in the game (not until about the 60th minute mind you) and Wales proceeded to open them up like a tin of beans on the way to a 33-7 win. Ireland had 59% of the possession against Scotland and an even more impressive 63% of the territory and if it hadn’t been for a missed conversion they would have won. Italy only had 39% possession and 38% of the territory, so you really feel they could be on the receiving end of a hiding this week. Even the weather seems to be conspiring against Italy, it should be a balmy 16 degrees at kick-off time but if the Italian forwards can slow down what will surely be a ferocious effort from the Irish then it could be closer than Joe Schmidt would like. If the Irish team bus gets caught in Rome’s notorious traffic then all bets are off though after a week of hearing about Ireland’s late arrival was responsible for last week’s loss (which is absolute cobblers, if you know your pre-game routine is so intricately mapped out then you should be aiming to be there an hour earlier so the players can do their own preparation before you start the process!). If there’s one area where Italy could look to have an edge it’s in the backrow, Italian number 7 Simone Favaro has been a bit of a powerhouse for Glasgow Warriors this season and Sean O’Brien opposite him has not looked like an out and out 7 this season, alongside Sergio Parisse and Maxime Mbanda Favaro will form a very dynamic backrow and as long O’Brien, Heaslip and Stander remain on the pitch together Ireland’s will be unbalanced. Stander is probably the form number 8 in world rugby and plays at 6 like an 8, last week Heaslip’s major contribution was to give away 2 penalties so he needs a big game to compensate for that but he won’t play like a 6 either and that’s where a problem could arise.
Wales v England is one those games were both teams talk big but are secretly nervous as hell. Eddie Jones has had verbal diarrhoea all week, either in an attempt to infuriate everyone in Wales or in a series of very careless press conferences he’s questioned if Wales is a country (if Japan is then Wales definitely is Edwardo), he’s claimed that the Welsh are cunning referencing the possession of daffodils as evidence (that bathtub must have given his head a hell of wallop). Wales on the other hand seem to have swerved any similar stream of thought (nobody has questioned England’s actual existence) instead Rhys Webb said that Wales were only concerned with Wales, which appears to be an admirable plan. As usual it’s Wales’ team selection that is a huge worry, in fact the idea that they might not make a final team selection until 40 minutes before kick-off seems borderline negligent. England have known their team all week and will be settled, Wales with a day less preparation time have been training under the assumption both George North and Dan Biggar are fit but won’t know until just before the game. It won’t be a problem for the players who come into the team (Sam Davies showed last week he’s Mr Cool on the pitch and Alex Cuthbert who I presume would replace North has over 40 caps) but it will for the other players around them, although Rhys Webb knows Sam Davies from the Ospreys Scott Williams and Jonathan Davies don’t play with him week in week out. There’s the potential for a ramble about 10,000 hours of practice to make an elite performer here, but it’s not 100% transferable even if the basic principle remains; fail to prepare, prepare to fail (or the 18+ version Proper Preparation Prevents Piss Poor Performance) and I’m just not sure Wales’ preparation has been good enough to win a Test match.
There has been some murmurings about how England didn’t play that well against France last week and whilst it didn’t look pretty and they dominated territory against a monstrous French pack and split possession 50-50 so they weren’t as terrible as some are claiming. They also only conceded 8 penalties (which is always more to do with the referee than the team, but still). For Wales the worst news is they missed 25 tackles last week so they will have been hitting tackle bags all week.
I personally can’t see Wales winning this game and just like the Italian game it’ll only be close if the home side’s pack play out of their skin. People will point to Jack Clifford being rushed back to counteract Warburton and Tipuric but I don’t think Steady Eddie would risk a player as young as Clifford if there was a chance he’d breakdown. The inclusion of 2 backrower’s on the English bench show how determined England are to win quick ball and Jack Nowell and Jonathan Joseph could potentially tear the Welsh defence apart if that happens.