Everyone is bored of the phony war of words, even Steve Hansen (and to be fair to the grumpiest man in the world it has mostly been the Lions moaning about how sneaky the All Blacks are. Or just Lions “fans” or press pack moaning about how it’s not like the old days whilst seemingly forgetting that Wales and the occasional Irish man largely dominated the 70’s).
The Lions have swapped Kruis for Itoje and gone with Lawes & Stander (who has put in some man hours on this tour, and he’s not fully fit either!), Lawes for some added umph and presumably Stander so Faletau can go to 6 when Warburton fades after about 50 minutes. Jack Nowell gets the nod on the bench presumably cos he can slot in at 13, 14 or 15 if need be (bet Rieko Ioane can’t wait).
But it’s not about the playing personnel it’s all about the officials. Garces is not afraid to brandish the cards which no ref has really done until now on this tour. The weather could make for tricky playing conditions too so one misstep or ill timed challenge in the air could see someone taking an early shower. If it’s a Lions player it could be fatal and Beauden Barrett will love picking apart a depleted Lions defensive line. Obviously I’ll be hoping it isn’t a Lion, but even if the All Blacks lose a player they’re still likely to win, unless that player is one of their talismanic Lock forwards (but they’re unlikely to be competing for up and under’s). The Lions tight 5 will need to produce a gargantuan effort in order to free up the back row to do their thing. A good gauge of how well the Lions forwards are doing is how far away from the rucks Taulupe Faletau is, when he’s freed up and able to play in the wide channels he can be a real threat to defences, but if he has to help out in the dark and dirty stuff then it’ll be because the forwards in front of him are struggling.
My heart says Lions by 5 in a nail-biter, but I don’t really trust my heart to make these sort of decisions so it’ll probably be the All Blacks by 17. We can only hope there isn’t too much controversial officiating, although 1-1 going into the 3rd Test would be a mouthwatering prospect!