The Blues front row weighs in a more than hefty 58 stone (plus a bit of change) and here in lies the problem, without wishing to point out the blindingly obvious, clean scrum ball could be very difficult to come by and for the Lions to score 3 tries they’re going to need at least 5 clear cut opportunities. On the plus side Pascal Gauzere is in charge of the whistle and he’s not renowned for his “interpretations” when it comes to scrum time so Leigh Halfpenny could have plenty of chances to warm up his kicking boots even if the Lions scrum looks to be taking a pasting!
With Tipuric playing at 7 and the perpetual motion machine that is Maro Itoje romping around the field the Lions may well be tempted to play a wide attacking game (if they manage to secure any ball) but with Biggar at 10 and the 31 year old Jared Payne at 13 (and a blindside who hasn’t looked fit for about 2 months in James Haskell) that could prove difficult. Even trying to throw the ball around against a Blues side with Akira Ioane at 6, Bristol bound Steven Luatua at 8 AND former New Zealand 7’s players Augustine Pulu, Sonny Bill Williams and Rieko “dancing feet” Ioane could be a really dangerous plan.
Personally I’d be happy with a 6-0 win to the Lions and on to Canterbury but I can’t imagine that’ll happen, from a Lions point of view there are a few questions to answer after Saturday’s soporific jetlag-fest not least who will play in the second row with George Kruis come Test match time. Alun-Wyn Jones and Iain Henderson might have got the short end of the stick with the first starts but you’d imagine that Itoje or Lawes have a great shot at nailing down a Test spot already (or both if Gatland fancies 1 of them at 6, but Peter “outta my way” O’Mahony is on the bench. And Ross Moriarty is everything you want to take on an All Black back row). Robbie Henshaw v Sonny Bill Williams could be pretty epic, but SBW hasn’t hit his straps since his return from injury and as a committed Muslim is currently “managing Ramadan” and Robbie Henshaw was wrapped up in Leinster’s end of season tailspin back home, although getting away from Sexton might perk him up. Jack McGrath has a chance to condemn Joe Marler to 5 weeks of midweek games (although Marler’s 3 metre’s in 3 carries on Saturday probably did that). CJ Stander needs game time after Rassie Erasmus said that he was still coming back from injury at the end of the season.
For the Blues George Moala will be pretty desperate to remind the All Black selectors that he’s still incredibly powerful so Jared Payne will need to get him early or face the prospect of a very angry 16+ stone coming at him at full tilt. Rieko Ioane will probably be an All Black sooner or later so Jack Nowell’s much vaunted defence will be tested.
Off the bench Patrick Tuipolotu and Jonathan Sexton will both want to show what they can do and if you’re a Lions forward you don’t want to see Tuipolotu galloping down field after 60 minutes, he’s far too quick to weigh the best part of 19 stone.
On a totally self-indulgent note Michael Collins looked a very tidy prospect at the Scarlets so I’d love him to have a good game and how he compares to Halfpenny could be very interesting indeed. I’m going with the Blues by 14, but the looser the Lions try to play the more chances the Blues will have to bag some meat pies.