The Lions strength is in the collective whilst the All Blacks are without doubt the most talented group of players assembled in the professional era (if not ever, they’d certainly give Gareth, Barry, JPR and the gang a run for their money) and in a high pressure, one off game you have to imagine outrageous talent is more beneficial.
However the individual talent can only shine if the forwards collective effort affords them enough possession and momentum to do so and, statistically at least, the All Black pack have had the better of this series so far, but last time out the Lions managed to generate that most precious of things, quick ruck ball in the opposition’s 22. And here’s where it gets interesting, Romain Poite is the man in the middle and he makes some pretty strange decisions at rucks, at the recent Top 14 final he hardly penalised any tacklers for not rolling away and this lead to a succession of turn overs and not a whole load of tries (just 1 for each team). Poite is also not the greatest when it comes to working out who committed what offence at scrum time so this promises to be a game with a lot of penalties and turnovers in it, probably not what the All Blacks are after.
Even so the All Blacks are still favourite to win comfortably and without the assistance of some pretty unfortunate circumstances they would have won last week (Sonny Bill Williams arriving just as a tackled Anthony Watson was struggling to escape from a defender’s clutches has to be a once in a lifetime sort of coincidence) but for quite a few of the Lion’s players they will feel that they can play better and they will all want to prove that the criticism they have suffered as a touring party is wholly unreasonable.
The bookmakers have apparently made an All Blacks win by 11-14 the most likely outcome but that seems to be a fairly large gap given the Lions motivation and fact that Poite is likely to award both teams a similar number of penalties (12 to Clermont who had a dominant scrum and 10 to Toulon who had Liam Gill at the breakdown in the Top 14 final).
The Lions made 6 clean breaks to the All Blacks 1 last week and despite being down a player for about 60 minutes the All Blacks still had 61% of the possession! The Lions will need to get the ball to Anthony Watson, Taulupe Faletau and Jonathan Davies if they’re going to pose an attacking threat and they must kick well out of hand because the new All Black back 3 of Dagg, Jordie Barrett and Julian Savea will round and straight over the top of defenders if they get any space at all.
Last week really did illustrate the stark difference between the coaching set up’s too as Gatland trusted the starters for as long as humanly possible and eventually they pulled through while Steve Hansen showed no signs of hesitation, when decisions needed to be made he threw the subs on (all 8 had a run out, compared to the Lions 2 tactical ones and 3 forced). The intensity of this whole series will take a toll at some time and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that the management of the players will lead to who wins the series. Bringing back an angry Julian Savea after 2 weeks on the side could be a master stroke by Hansen, but a rested Ken Owens and CJ Stander could explode in the last 20 minutes for the Lions.
Ultimately the Lions have outperformed most expectations with a few commentators questioning if they’d even win a game with less preparation time than they’d have wanted. I can’t see anyone else beating the All Blacks in New Zealand this year, or maybe even for the next few years and watching other Rugby Championship teams so far this year I’d be surprised if any of them get within 25 points of the All Black machine. I’ve gone for a 1 point win to the All Blacks, but pressure does funny things to people and with 99% of their team (Jordie Barrett might still be knocking about in 12 years and Anton Lienert-Brown, Ardie Savea and Scott Barrett have got outside shots too) knowing they’ll never play the Lions again it’ll be one hell of a pressure cooker!