Jaguars @ Steelers 

Pittsburgh threw 15 interceptions in the 2017 season and 5 of those came the last time Jacksonville visited Heinz Field and won 30-9 but that game served as a wake up call for the Steelers and waa followed by 8 straight wins. Only the Patriots have beaten the Steelers since Jacksonville’s week 5 thrashing and that game involved a very controversial booth review which erased a Jesse James touchdown that would have given the Steelers a 3 point lead with a PAT attempt (or 2 point conversion) to come.

In week 5 Leonard Fournette rushed for 181 yards on 28 attempts and the Jags in total attempted 37 running plays and averaged 6.2 yards per carry. Fournette has only had 3 100+ yards rushing games since and has scored just 4 rushing touchdowns in the last 10 weeks of the season, that’s known as the “rookie wall”. Jacksonville’s heavy reliance on the 22 year old has been one of their frailties this season, he has carried 50% of the teams running game on his shoulders and he missed 3 regular season games injured!

The Steelers team in week 5 was lead by Antonio Brown’s 157 receiving yards (10 catches on 19 targets) which is some effort against a Jaguars pass Defence that has been winning admirers left, right and centre this season. The Steelers did not run well against a Jaguars Defensive front that specialises in pass rush with Le’Veon Bell only gaining 47 yards on 15 attempts following his 4 week suspension at the start of the season.

Jacksonville only just squeaked past a very perfunctory Bills team at home last week and Heinz Field is a very difficult place to place in adverse conditions and when this game the weather forecast is predicting a temperature of -9 degrees Celsius! I expect Pittsburgh will take everything they learned in week 5 and use it to their advantage but this game could hinge on Antonio Brown’s health, he will reportedly play however returning from a calf injury in weather that would make skiing physically demanding sounds like a feat of superhuman strength to me. It will be easier to play Defence in that weather than it will be to construct long, fluent offensive drives so that could play into Jacksonville’s hands. Pittsburgh by 1-6 points is the bookies favourite result and in such extreme conditions you have to imagine points will be at a premium so they’re probably right. 

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