Fantasy Football (pt. 2)

The original idea for this flight of fancy came when I thought about which players in the Draft would benefit from working with an adventurous Offensive minded coach like Kliff Kingsbury or Sean McVay and after a while I thought that one position the Cardinals could really use is a Tight End. Tight End has been an area of weakness in Arizona for a while and even when they have had good players there they’ve never really found a way to make them productive (Ricky Seals Jones caught more TD’s last season in Cleveland than in any of his seasons in the desert, Jermaine Gresham was more productive in Cincinnati, the best season of Darren Fells career was last year in Houston) the most impressive season for a Cardinals Tight End in recent history was probably Rob Housler in 2013 when he had 39 catches for 454 yards and a TD, they did get 15 catches for 202 yards and 1 TD from Maxx Williams last season and that rather highlights what an underused position it is in Arizona (although Williams is a bit of an interesting case, he’s never improved on 32 catches for 268 yards in Baltimore during his rookie season). So I thought the one player who could provide a bit of pop for the Cardinals at Tight End would be Thaddeus Moss, he was part of LSU’s Championship winning team, Kliff loves to pass (it is the AIR raid Offence after all), Kyler Murray isn’t a direct comparison with Joe Burrow but he definitely has the confidence and excitement factor most QB’s leave in College and Moss hauled in 47 passes (82.5% of his targets) for 570 yards last season. Moss didn’t attend the Combine as he suffered a foot injury and while he isn’t the superhuman athlete that his Dad was when he entered the league he is 6″2′ with a 32 inch long arms (Rob Gronkowsi’s arms measured 34.3 inches and he’s 4 inches taller) and he’s certainly strong enough to be an effective chip blocker at the line of scrimmage. His foot injury could see drop down to the fifth round of the Draft but if he is healthy in time to for mini camp (and there’s no reason to think he won’t be) he will definitely be fun to watch and with speculation that the Cardinals will draft an Offensive lineman with the 10th pick to protect Murray an extra receiving option to go along with Hopkins, Fitzgerald, Kirk and Isabella seems to be something that would appeal to Kingsbury.

On the topic of Coaches who might be tempted to Draft extravagantly when it comes to skill players on the Offensive side of the ball it will be fascinating to see what Sean McVay and the Rams do in this Draft, they’ve got plenty of needs and aren’t due to pick until the second round with the 52nd pick. The Offensive line needs a major rebuild particularly at Guard but if they could manage to get Lloyd Cushenberry who can play either Centre or Guard and has been lauded for his leadership at LSU last season that could go a long way toward helping Jared Goff out. Another way to help Goff would be to fill the space left by Brandin Cooks departure to Houston and this is where the fun could begin, if they want to pick one of the more talked about prospects they’ll need to jump about 40 places and they’re not exactly flush with either Draft capital or desirable players but it would be great to see Darnell Mooney working in a McVay Offence, he’s like a version of Brandin Cooks who can catch passes (remember the two touchdowns he dropped in the Super Bowl?) and he’s used to going in motion which was something McVay used to do with Cooks and Goff seemed to be comfortable with.

The Rams currently only have one Defensive End on the books and since they fired Wade Phillips at the end of last season and lost Dante Fowler to the Falcons they will surely be targeting at least one pass rusher in the Draft, but judging by how many hybrid lineman/linebackers they currently they will be looking for a big, powerful End ahead of a sneaky quick one like Fowler and there are two guys from Auburn who fit the bill. Marlon Davidson is 6″3 and weighs 303 lbs and is comfortable either on the end of the line or inside which would be great news for Aaron Donald since his production dropped with Ndamukong Suh alongside him but he may well be gone before the Rams get a chance to pick and Nick Coe is 6″5 and 280 lbs and isn’t considered to be as consistent or polished as Davidson but working with Donald and Michael Brockers would certainly speed up his development.

In my own, very personal fantasy world I would love to see how Tua would develop under McVay in L.A too, it definitely won’t be happening anytime soon though after all the money they threw at Goff last off-season. And unless the Offensive line improves drastically that’s probably for the best, an injury prone QB behind that hotchpotch would be a huge risk.

Finally I would quite like to see the Falcons Draft Clyde Edwards-Helaire, he could be the steal of the whole Draft class with one site ranking him 81st (the Falcons have a the 78th pick). Even though the Falcons have recently acquired Todd Gurley they don’t really have a clear backup on the roster and given Gurley’s injury history combined with the fact they only scored 10 rushing TD’s last season they could do worse than take a gamble in the LSU product. Edwards-Helaire scored 16 rushing TD’s last season, caught one and totaled 1,876 yards from the line of scrimmage at average of 6.9 yards per carry. I imagine the main concerns are over his lack of stature as he only stands 5″8′ but Maurice Jones-Drew was only 5″7′ (he was a whole pound heavier than Clyde) and he didn’t seem to fair too badly in the NFL.

Fantasy football

So it’s nearly time for the first online NFL Draft which could could provide some hilarity and more than a few very frustrated and bamboozled middle aged coaches and GM’s. The NFL have said that for the first time in the history of the Draft they will stop the clock if there are unforeseen circumstances which cause team’s issues when making picks so it could also be one of the most protracted first rounds ever, so there’s something to look forward to! Last week I tried to predict (although in fairness I readily admit that I guessed wildly) so this week I thought I’d think aloud about which players I’d like to see with different teams even if there’s no chance of them actually ending up there.

I’m a big fan of Jalen Hurts and I think there’s a very good chance he will surprise a few of the experts and be a success wherever he lands but I would really like to see him in Indianapolis. Hurts looked very good in patches at Alabama but had a fairly big hiccup in the National Championship game and was bailed out by Tua and that seemed to be held against him despite him returning the favour in the 2018 SEC Championship game against Georgia. Last season he played for Oklahoma and while he wasn’t exactly Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray he actually looked to be playing at quite a high level in a team that wasn’t as star studded as it had been in the previous two seasons. They finished the season with a 12-2 record and lost in the Peach Bowl to eventual champions LSU, Hurts threw 32 TD’s with 8 interceptions and ran for another 20 and even caught a TD so hardly a terrible season but he’s still not projected as a high pick with Tua, Herbert and Jordan Love ahead of him.

The Colts have already signed Phillip Rivers as a stop-gap for one season so a young QB to learn from such an experienced campaigner the way Patrick Mahomes did behind Alex Smith would be ideal. Two more major plus points for any young QB who the Colts draft are that GM Chris Ballard has made a speciality out of building a team to win the battle at the line of scrimmage, possibly as a result of seeing Andrew Luck take so much punishment during his career the Colts now have a very sturdy Offensive line and Head Coach Frank Reich who was a QB in the league for 13 years and has developed a reputation as something of a Quarterback whisperer as a coach and he was the Offensive Coordinator in Philadelphia when the Eagles beat the Patriots 41-33 in Super Bowl LII. There’s almost no chance Hurts does land in Indianapolis and as they’ve already traded away their first round pick a project QB won’t be anywhere near the top of their list but they do have 2 picks in the first 12 of the second round.

A more pressing need for the Colts is probably Wide Receiver with T.Y Hilton approaching his 31st birthday and the strain of being the major receiving threat in Indianapolis since 2012 starting to take its toll whoever takes over from Rivers could use a consistent number 1 receiver and unless they trade up for one of the most promising prospects Michael Pittman could be a very useful guy who will probably be available when the Colts first pick comes around at number 34.

Speaking of high end WR talent I would personally love to see at least 2 of the best 3 land with top QB’s but that is highly unlikely unless there are some blockbuster trades happening in the top half of the first round (which seems highly unlikely), but this is my fantasy world remember so we live in hope. It would be great to see the Packers actually try to help Aaron Rodgers and giving him another elite receiver like CeeDee Lamb to pair with Davante Adams would go some way towards doing that but it’s highly unlikely they will. For a team who won 13 games last season the Packers have a lot of needs in this Draft and they’ve only got 2 picks in the first 93 (!) they do have 8 picks in the later rounds though so they could trade up to try and at least solidify the O-line.

Carson Wentz is another QB who needs more reliable receiving options, the Eagles ended last season with former College QB Greg Ward playing as a receiver and after an injury crisis they had 9 different WR’s who caught passes. Going into the 2020 their most established WR is DeSean Jackson who will be 34 in December and hasn’t played a full season since 2013! Jerry Jeudy would be really interesting to watch in an Offence with Carson Wentz and coached by Doug Pederson. With a real deep threat to clear space for Zach Ertz, Miles Sanders and Boston Scott the Eagles could return to the sort of high powered Offence that saw them overpower the Patriots not so long ago.

Wildcard Weekend (the NFC bit part 2)

Back in 1996 the Propellerheads collaborated with Shirley Bassey and released “History Repeating” and that should be this game’s theme tune, the Seahawks travelled to Philadelphia just 6 weeks ago and despite a few alleged experts claiming they would struggle with the travel and the time difference they won 17-9. There a few differences in personnel from that game and the Seahawks demonstrated last week that they can quite average and incredibly exciting to watch in 2 halves of the same game so there is a chance that this is the wild Wildcard game.

In week 12 had Rashaad Penny and Chris Carson to combine for 155 rushing yards and a touchdown and this week it looks likely that they’ll be relying on Travis Homer to carry most of the load in the run game with occasional bursts of veteran Marshawn Lynch and another veteran Robert Turbin on third downs. That may sound like a pretty serious problem, but back in week 12 the Seahawks had 14 players either “limited” or completely missing from practice this week that number is just 8 although 3 of them are Offensive lineman and that could have a bigger effect on the run game than the combination of running backs they’re using. The Eagles themselves have missed running back Miles Sanders and left tackle Lane Johnson during practice this week although Sanders says he fully expects to play on Sunday.

It’s been a messy season for the Eagles especially in terms of injuries and they’ve only won 5 games at home this season compared to the Seahawks 7 road games, the Eagles are ranked 12th in the league for passing touchdowns (averaging 1.7 per game) and 8th for interceptions (23rd in overall turnover percentage) and 13th for rushing touchdowns (averaging 1 per game) so they’re going to need their Defence to hold the Seahawks to less than 14 points if they’re going to win this game. The Seahawks have averaged a nice, round 25 points per game on the road this season although the 17 they scored in Philly last time out was the fewest points they’ve scored outside Seattle this season. If Eagles fans are searching for hope they can look to the fact that the Seahawks lost their last 2 games of the season against divisional opponents, so teams who have already played them this season can be problematic although both those teams were considerably healthier than the Eagles figure to be this week.

It’s difficult to see how injuries don’t decide this game, even if both teams start the game with the majority of players who have missed practice there’s a very real possibility the injuries will rear their ugly heads again during the game. Unless something drastic happens the Seahawks should be buoyed by the ending of last week’s battle with the 49ers and should progress serenely into the next round with a 10 point buffer.

Wildcard Weekend (the NFC bit)

It seems amazing that any team from the NFC North made the playoffs so the fact that two teams are still playing in January is absolutely inconceivable. Conversely the only thing surprising about the Saints appearance in the playoffs is that it’s happening so early with many expecting them to be one of the first two seeds and on a bye week.

Frankly its hard to envision a scenario whereby the 10-6 Vikings even get remotely close to the 13-3 Saints, even if both teams finished with similar final records there’s no getting away from the fact that Kirk Cousins is an absolute basket case in big games, he’s 7-15 over his entire career in prime time matchups and 6-29 against teams with a winning record! Obviously this isn’t all on Cousins, it’s a team game so obviously the rest of the team need to contribute to decide the outcome of games and the Vikings do have a playoff victory over the Saints in recent years back in 2018 in what became known as the “Minneapolis Miracle” when Saints Safety Marcus Williams completely whiffed on his attempt to tackle Stefon Diggs and actually ducked straight underneath him allowing Diggs to complete a game winning 61 yard touchdown. Unfortunately for the Vikings the cliché “once bitten, twice shy” spring readily to mind, Williams certainly won’t be beaten as easily this time round and as Hollywood often seems to write the script for these NFL redemption stories it wouldn’t be a surprise if he starts the game with a pick 6. As if history and a shonky QB weren’t enough reason to doubt the Vikings they currently have 11 players on the Injury Report and although 6 of them practiced in full today it still concerning.

Statistically this should be the most entertaining of the 4 games this weekend with the Saints being second in the league in terms of passing touchdowns scored and 21st when it comes to the number they’ve allowed. Alternatively the Vikings prefer to run the ball and being 6th in the league for rushing touchdowns. The one thing in the Vikings favour is that they may well be able to keep the ball away from the Saints pass first Offence by running the ball against the Saints leaky run Defence but if Dennis Allen decides to load the box then at some stage Kirk Cousins will have to take the team on his shoulders and we all know that rarely ends well.

There’s a real chance this becomes a huge blowout win for the Saints as Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill seem to be finding some very impressive form of late and the Saints haven’t lost a game on the road since week 2 but the Vikings have been averaging 24 points per game at home this season and the Saints have been nearer 29 points per game away so the Total Points set at 49.5 seems far too low. Saints by more 12 points seems like a realistic outcome.

Wildcard weekend, the AFC bit at least

Buffalo at Houston is essentially the NFL equivalent of the North London derby, both teams are capable of producing exciting football but neither have been able to put together enough excitement to challenge for the big prize. The Bills longest winning streak this season has been 3 games and the Texans haven’t won more than 2 consecutive games all season, luckily for them they lost last week! If either coaching team could figure out how to win consistently then both of these teams could be on a bye week this weekend instead of playing after a short week which in theory should favour the home team however the weather in Buffalo is forecast to be 7 degrees and wet on Saturday so travelling somewhere where it’ll be 17 and sunny has to be a bonus.

It’s really difficult to draw any conclusions from either team’s regular season results (beyond the axiom that their inconsistency could indicate possible weaknesses within the coaching teams) since both seem to have beaten teams with poor defensive records, the only real obvious difference is that the Texans beat the Patriots while the Bills conspired to lose to them twice in some rather grim weather conditions. The Texans have won 5 games in Houston this season and as if to highlight their inconsistency the games they lost were to the Panthers and Broncos who both ended the season with losing records. The Bills on the other hand won 6 games on the road so they won’t mind having to travel 1,500 odd miles.

The Bills Defence should make them favourites too as they’re ranked second in terms of passing touchdowns allowed, ninth in rushing touchdowns and 10th in turnovers made. The Texans are 27th in passing touchdowns (a whopping 33 allowed), ninth in rushing touchdowns and 15th in turnovers. This is another reason that this game is awkward to pick, the Bills are a stronger team than passing with Quarterback Josh Allen rushing for 9 touchdowns the most in the league by a QB while their 21 touchdown passes rank them 24th in the league.

Bill O’Brien’s postseason record looks to be deciding factor in this game to me, as a head coach he’s only won 1 playoff game while he’s lost 3 and for all the Bills coaching team possible faults (Sean McDermott himself is 0-1 in the playoffs) they’ve put together a team who should be able to win a scrappy, nerve-jangler in somebody else’s back garden.

Overreaction Sunday the NFL addition

Given that expecting anything that happened in the first week of the football season to be a regular occurrence is essentially a huge overreaction I thought I’d join the herd and see if anything I noticed last week were actually indicative of future performance.

The first thing that stood out to me was the Cardinals Defensive line, everyone was talking about their Offensive line (and it looked pretty porous, but they’ve got a College coach and a very mobile QB so there’s not really any surprise there). With Terrell Suggs, Cassius Marsh and Chandler Jones they were always going to generate some edge rush but with rookie Zach Allen, Rodney Gunter and nose tackle Corey Peters they have real physicality up front to allow the pass rushers and Linebacker Jordan Hicks to do their stuff. They play the Ravens in Baltimore this week and while Lamar Jackson made scoring 50 points look easy in week 1 I think the maligned Cardinals could pose much more of a challenge than Miami’s bunch of wantaways did (the Dolphins did actually record a sack on Jackson so a team who actually have some game tape and a roster who don’t want to leave have a very decent shot at disrupting).

Against the Cardinals last week the Lions Defensive line recorded 5 sacks (although it should be pointed out that Kyler Murray took the best part of 3 quarters to settle into the NFL regular season) and in Damon “snacks” Harrison and Mike Williams they have serious power in the middle of the line, they lack the sort of explosiveness that the Cardinals have at Linebacker but they have sort sparkling Defensive Backs so they have the potential to make turnovers and in Matt Patricia they have a Head Coach who has learned from Bill Bellichick. They host the Chargers in week 2 and if Harrison and Daniels can slow the run game down Phillip Rivers has been known to throw interceptions (12 last season alongside his 32 TD’s).

The Saints Defensive line was incredibly impressive last week too (hardly surprising considering they should have been in the Super Bowl last season) and Sheldon Rankins may return this week in L.A against a Rams team who seem as confused by their running back situation as everyone else is. If a fit Gurley appears the Rams have a real chance of winning their home opener but if his number of touches are limited the team with a healthy Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray must be favourites to make a 2-0 start to the season.

On the subject of unsurprisingly good Defensive fronts the 49ers (Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner and not forgetting Dee Ford) travel to Cincinnati to test out the Bengals O-line and with a banged up Joe Mixon probably giving Gio Bernard more carries Andy Dalton might need to throw another 51 passes this week and that could spell disaster with Richard Sherman and K’Waun Williams patrolling the Defensive backfield.

The Seahawks travel from the West Coast to the banks of the Ohio River too as they visit Pittsburgh for a game that could sink the Steelers season before its really even left the dock. The Seahawks get to unleash Jadaveon Clowney on a Steelers Offence that was completely overwhelmed by the Patriots last week (again, not a surprise) and I quite like the Seahawks slightly smaller but very quick (less Legion of Boom, more Legion of Zoom remember) Defence. The only concern is the Seahawks desire to run when the Steelers did a very good job of shutting down the Patriots run game, they were ripped to pieces by Tom Brady and playaction passes but Pete Carroll seems reticent to use Russell Wilson’s arm as a primary weapon.

Colts, or more accurately Marlon Mack could surprise the Titans this week in Indianapolis this week. The Titans pulled the much hyped Browns pants down in FirstEnergy Stadium largely because the Browns abandoned the run and tried to get Baker Mayfield to win the game (Browns ran it 20 times last week, Mack himself ran it 25 times of the Colts 33 attempts) if Adam Vinatieri hadn’t missed 7 points the Colts would have left L.A with a win.

The Vikings should win in Green Bay but does anyone trust Kirk Cousins not to throw a pass to Jaire Alexander? Probably not. The Bears at Denver could be a very low scoring game if last week is anything to go by as both QB’s looked all at sea and the Bears Defence looked like it could provide pass rush but little else while the Broncos looked anything but a Vic Fangio Defence. The Browns should get an away victory in New Jersey mainly because most of the Jets are either carrying injuries or ill, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Browns completely mess that up.

So, just to recap; Cardinals Defensive front – surprisingly great. Lions should be difficult to run on. Saints Defensive front – dominant. Todd Gurley’s knee – who knows? 49ers pass rush – scary. Seahawks Defensive front – bad news for the Steelers, but the Seahawks need to let Russell Wilson loose. Marlon Mack vs the Titans would be the best way to keep Derrick Henry off the field (& hopefully Vinatieri has new boots). Kirk Cousins in Green Bay, iffy? Can the Bears and Broncos cure insomnia? (probably). Browns gonna Brown? (probably).

Saracens v Gloucester

Parkway Drive once declared “Romance is Dead” on their 2005 album Killing with a Smile and they may very well have been predicted the 2019 Gallagher Premiership season. The top 4 teams finished exactly as predicted here back before a ball had been kicked in anger but if there is one glimmer of hope that Parkway Drive’s declaration may have come prematurely its that Gloucester can be absolutely scintillating on their day and if all 22 hit their straps on the same day it could be absolutely glorious to watch.

Gloucester certainly appear to have an edge in the front row battle largely because there’s no Mako Vunipola for Saracens and since he is one of the best Loose-head props in the world any replacement is going to be a step down. They’re also Titi Lamositele, Juan Figallo and Christopher Tolofua who are all capped internationals. They are replaced by Ralph Adams-Hale who is fresh out of the Academy, Christian Judge who is on loan from Cornish Pirates and Joe Gray who only signed for Saracens in September 2018. Gloucester have also got a relative newbie in the front row ranks too with Mike Sherry, who is on loan from Munster, appearing on their bench but apart from him the Cherry & Whites front row are all familiar faces. In actual fact personnel could very little influence on how the scrums go, referee Luke Pearce proved last week that he will penalise effect over cause at scrum time. He was an assistant referee at Sandy Park where he seemed to take a sudden dislike to the Northampton scrum even when it appeared to most impartial observers that the Saints prop’s were struggling to maintain a bind and hold the scrum up because their Exeter counterparts weren’t driving particularly square.

Gloucester have been particularly successful at line outs this season with the play of Franco Mostert being particularly revelatory. The 28 year old Springbok has been one of the stand out locks all season, he’s been indefatigable around the park and he’s stolen 10 line out in 13 games which lead to him being selected in the dream team. Saracens line out has been outstanding this season too when Jamie George has been throwing it in and he may well play the whole 80 minutes this week but how the unfamiliar combinations effect the set piece later in the game will be interesting to see.

There will be a lot made of the Cipriani v Farrell matchup but the main reason that both 10’s are so successful is because they only use the ball when they are convinced that the big lads ahead of them have sucked in enough defenders for them to exploit the resulting space. If this is going to be the slug-fest Gloucester are expecting (they’ve got 6 forwards, even if Polledri has appeared on the wing this season) then neither 10 will be seeing much of the ball. Gloucester have also selected their 2 best defending wingers who are both great kick chasers. Tom Marshall is one of the most underrated players in the Gallagher Premiership, if Cipriani can get Marshall in the space between Lozowski and his opposite number Sean Maitland then Marshall’s physicality could make a bit of space for Gloucester’s right wing Charlie Sharples.

My head says Saracens at home is a huge mountain to overcome particularly at the business end of the season but my heart says Cipriani has the keys to unlock any door that appears to be shut in front of him it’s just all about how his pack stand up to the physical onslaught they’re bound to be subjected to.

And who keeps Luke Pearce on their good side will have a huge influence too.

Franco Mostert to win Man of the Match and Gloucester to win by 2.