Titans @ Chiefs

Eric Berry is one of the best 2 Safeties in the NFL and the Chiefs Defence has just not been the same since he tore an Achilles tendon back in September. According to recent reports he’s still the heartbeat of the Chiefs team off the field but nobody can replace the awareness and skill set he brings onto the field. The Chiefs presence in the playoffs is largely due to their 4 game win streak which was inspired by a 31-38 loss to Josh McCown’s Jets in week 13. Teams on winning streaks are often touted as being the team to beat in January but during their winning streak the Chiefs have conceded 55 points! During the same period the the Titans have scored 68 points.

The Titans could also be missing a very important player as their lead running back DeMarco Murray reportedly suffered a grade 3 MCL tear in week 16 and did not play in week 17 although the Titans reportedly consider him day to day. Grade 3 tears are the most serious tears and usually take months rather than weeks to heal, Murray though is 29 and will be only too aware that his chances of playing in the post-season are decreasing considerably. Running the ball will be crucial for the Titans if they are to have any success against the Chiefs defence who have allowed 118 yards per game at an average of 4.3 yards per carry. Only 2 Quarterbacks have scored more rushing touchdowns than Marcus Mariota this season and when he’s run with the ball he’s averaged 5.2 yards per carry, so the Titans definitely have the tools to take the Chiefs apart.

The Titans have had an issue with turning over the ball this season and their – 4 ratio was the 7th worse in the league, the Chiefs on the other hand were the second best team in terms of turnovers as they recorded 15.

I’ve already read an article entitled “Why the Titans have no chance in Kansas City” this week and the bookies have the Chiefs as 8 point favourites but I think the Titans Offensive line combined with Eric Berry’s absence give the Titans more than a chance especially considering Andy Reid and Alex Smith’s previous playoff travails (a combined record of 13-16).  I’d be surprised if the Chiefs playoff run lasts more than a week and with cold and very windy conditions forecast for Saturday ball possession will be vital and kickers Ryan Succop (who set an NFL record when he made his 47th consecutive field goal inside 50 yards earlier this season)  and Harrison Butker could be the most important players for their respective teams. 

AFC Championship Game Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots

If the NFC Championship game is clear of drama then its AFC counterpart has enough hoopla surrounding it to keep most soap operas in storyline’s for about a year!  Pittsburgh and Boston fan are 2 of the most fervent fan bases in sports, so when their respective football teams meet in such an important game then a little tension is to be expected and the line between friendly rivalry and bad sportsmanship can become a little blurred.  To attest to that fact a 25 year old Bostonian was arrested at about 3 am on Sunday for setting off the fire alarm in the Steelers hotel, correspondingly Gillette Stadium was evacuated when the fire alarm went off there at about 7 hours later (so it’s going well so far).  Even before the latest shenanigans there was plenty of drama swirling around this game, 15 Steelers have been suffering from stomach flu leading up to the game, the Patriots have injury concerns over 3 of their 6 active Wide Receivers and Martellus Bennett will reportedly play with bone fragments in his heel!  And all that without even mentioning Roger Goodell’s absence from New England following the “Deflate-gate” brouhaha (if he feels the NFL was correct then why should he avoid any potential ill feeling, even if he’s likely to suffer a hostile reception from some locals?) or the reports that surfaced in December that Pittsburgh may have used deflated ball’s too, the NFL vehemently refuted the claims.  And then there’s Antonio Brown’s own personal social media snafu last week (he broadcast Head Coach Mike Tomlin post game speech from the changing room where he railed against the Patriots and how they have benefitted from extra rest due to the way the schedule has fallen, although the Patriots were the number 1 seed in the AFC) live on Facebook which wasn’t met with universal approval from his teammates.

So on to the actual football that may be played (if the fire alarm ever stops going off) and remembering that both of these teams combined are responsible for winning 20% of all the Super Bowls ever played this game could be one for the ages.  Both teams scrapped to wins last week with the Patriots coming up against a Jadaveon Clowney inspired Texans Defence and the Steelers having to battle some arctic conditions in Kansas City along with a worrying inability to get the ball into the end zone despite 7 trips to the redzone.  For the Steelers the return of smash-mouth football seems to be the key to their success, for all the talk of Antonio Brown being one of the top 2 receivers in the NFL Running Back La’Veon Bell has been responsible for 1,431 yards and 8 Steelers touchdowns in their 9 game unbeaten run compared to Brown’s 685 and 7 touchdowns.  The Patriots Defence however has been particularly stingy against the run, they only allowed 6 rushing touchdowns during the regular season (the fewest in the league) and on average they only conceded 3.9 yards per carry while they forced 11 fumbles (the second most in the league).  So the Steelers may lean more on Brown in this game than Bell and with his controversy in the locker room last week he certainly has appoint to prove, he was fined $10,000 by the team but if Tomlin is feeling particularly disciplinarian (and like a decent gambler) then he may well chose to hold Brown out of the early exchanges.  This could have a twofold effect, Brown is looking at signing a big contract in the near future and if the Steelers can perform in his absence then his next big pay day may come outside Pittsburgh and if the Steelers Offence can occupy the Patriots Defence adequately in the first 30 minutes of the game then a fresh Brown may well provide the finishing touches and close the game out for the away team.

The Patriots early struggles against the Texans will have disappointed Bellichick and the coaches but I think they will have been quietly satisfied that they showed the character to come through against one of the toughest Defences in the NFL, they turned over the ball 3 times and I’m sure the players have been hearing about that all week long.  It’s always important to learn from mistakes so if the Patriots had sailed through last week’s game without making any it would have been harder to coach them this week, Brady threw as many interceptions last week as he did in the preceding 12 games of the season so he won’t have been a happy bunny and will be desperate to show exactly how good he can be this weekend against an opponent he’s seem plenty of during his career.  In 6 games against Mike Tomlin’s Steelers Brady has lost just once and he’s thrown 19 touchdowns without throwing a single interception!  This is why I feel the Patriots are going to yet another Super Bowl, along with the absolute distain they feel towards Goodell after the 4 game ban Brady was subjected for his part in the “Deflate-gate” furore (although it was such a protracted legal process that nobody really remembers if Brady was proven to have done anything wrong at the beginning of it).  The Steelers Defensive line and Linebackers may well have a reasonable amount of success against a Patriots Offensive line who couldn’t handle Merciless and Clowney for large parts last week but former Steeler LeGarrette Blount will be pretty desperate to run all over them and take some of the steam out of any Defender unfortunate enough to get in his way (he weighs in just 18 stone and he can really move if he’s 100% healthy).

The bookmakers have got the Patriots as favourites and while the fitness of the Steelers flu sufferers and the Patriots Receivers will ultimately determine how comfortable the victory is I wouldn’t be surprised to see a faultless Brady showing and frankly I’m imagining the Patriots will be terrified to turn over the ball after last week’s profligacy!

Because it’s never too early to be wrong about the 2016 NFL Season…..

DSC_019817 weeks might seem like a long time to most people but to us NFL fans who are running out of NBA playoffs to watch it’s almost football season.  The Draft happened a whole week ago and some of the first rounder’s have already signed (about 8 at the last count, but hey-ho) so there’s something to talk about, well sort of.

The Jaguars massive offseason rebuild of the Defence is a good starting point, ESPN journalist Mike DiRocco has predicted that the Jags could only have 2 starting Defence players remaining from the 11 who started on the 7th of September 2014 against the Eagles (although 2nd year Strong Safety James Sample will have to go some to beat out Johnathan Cyprien who is a pretty talismanic member of the Jags backfield, 326 tackles in 44 games is not to be sniffed at).  The Jags drafted 6 defensive players and just 1 offensive player this year having drafted a mere 3 defenders in 2015 (one of whom Dante Fowler Jr. didn’t play at all after he blew his knee out on the first day of mini-camp) and 5 on the offensive side of the ball (now might a good time to point out that in January of this year they fired their Defensive Coordinator, tough break there Bob Babich. I bet he would have liked 6 new players to work with instead of just 2).  Dante Fowler Jr. should he make it out of preseason, will essentially be an extra 1st round pick for the Jags this season and when you realise they managed to snaffle Myles Jack (a projected 1st round linebacker whose athleticism allowed him to play at Safety and once at Cornerback during his college career) in the 2nd round after Jack was quoted as saying “Down the line, possibly I could have microfracture surgery – potentially”.  Jack said his fall from the 1st to 2nd round was “humiliating” (so he’s not lacking in motivation) and for the Jaguars drafting him was a calculated risk, if he’s healthy in the short term they’ve upgraded their linebacker corps but if he does require surgery they have 3 excellent linebackers in Posluszny, Skuta and Telvin Smith and the possibility of Dante Fowler playing as a stand-up edge rusher in certain situations.

So new Defensive Coordinator Todd Wash (alongside the 76 year old Monte Kiffin who has been named as “Assistant head coach of Defence”) certainly has a lot of toys to play with and the shiniest of all is first round pick Jalen Ramsey, but how he chooses to use him will be very interesting.  Ramsey himself said “I can play where they need me too.  I feel like I can work outside, in the slot or play deep”.  It’s that sort of humility that’ll hold him back you know!  To be fair to him he did suffix that quote with the old timey cliché “I have a lot to learn”, Ramsey ended his college career as a Cornerback but in his first year he also played Free Safety and became what Florida Sate call a “STAR” defender switching between Safety, Slot back and Linebacker.  Since the Jags have signed former Browns Safety Tashuan Gipson (who lead the NFL in interception return yards in 2014) Ramsey will probably line up opposite another new boy Prince Amukamara at Cornerback, but the Jaguars will certainly have the depth to rotate and interchange their Defensive backs regularly.  Personally I think Ramsey’s potential to become an Ed Reed style ball-hawking Free Safety is huge and since he ran on the FSU track team he could rattle up even more interception return yards than Gipson in the coming seasons, ally this with the fact that Sports Illustrated called him a “Force wrap tackler who thrives in the physical facet of the game” and I don’t think he’d be out of place at Safety in the NFL.

Rookie Defensive End Yannick Ngakoue broke the school record at Maryland last year for the most sacks in a season as he notched 13.5 in 12 games (he also forced a fumble and defended a pass), alongside Super Bowl 50 winner Malik Jackson, the already mentioned Dante Fowler Jr. and Miles Jack should assist Jared Odrick who lead the team in sacks last season should add much needed grunt up front for a team who recorded a pitiful 36 sacks last season (20th in the NFL).  They also drafted Tyrone Holmes in the 6th round who they have signed to a 4 year contract and they believe he could play in the Defensive line or as a strong-side linebacker their other 6th round pick was Johnathan Woodard who is a whopping 6 feet 6 inches tall and weighs 217 pounds so he may have some impact although his University of Central Arkansas College team were far from imposing during his career.

One slightly incongruous thing stands out from the Jags recent Defensive splurge though, Monte Kiffin is the man (along with Tony Dungy) known for developing the “Tampa 2” defence which is largely predicated on zone coverage and speedy, often undersized players (particularly Defensive backs).  The undersized part is already out of the window with this Jags defence, the linebackers and defensive backs are all fairly big but do fit incredibly speedy criterion.  Tampa 2 seems a strange Defence to lean toward in the AFC South where the main deficiency has traditionally been Offensive lines (the Jaguars themselves are no exception to this rule).  Between the 4 teams they allowed 178 sacks last season and all 4 teams finished in the bottom half of the league standings in terms of how well they protected their Quarterbacks so adopting a Defensive system where pass rush is key would seem a wiser decision as oppose to one where a premium is put on defending passes once they have been thrown and trying to make turnovers by hitting receivers hard instead of strip sacking the Quarterback which lead the Broncos to a Super Bowl victory.  Obviously a strong pass rush will assist the DB’s task when it comes to making turnovers, but to fully adopt the Tampa 2 Defence in a division that includes DeAndre Hopkins, Braxton Miller, T.Y Hilton and Dorial Green-Beckham certainly appears to be tempting fate even with the big hitters the Jags have accumulated in the defensive backfield.

In addition to the peculiar recruitment of the Tampa 2 guru the question marks over the Jags own Offensive line remain and if they are to have the dominant Defence they crave they will need a strong running offence to build long drives and allow the Defence to rest.  Signing Chris Ivory, who rushed for 1,070 yards last season (the most in the AFC) to work alongside with last year’s leading rusher TJ Yeldon (and hopefully my personal favourites Jonas Gray and Denaruis Robinson) is an excellent move (and they will need to share out the carries because all four of them have injury effected career’s) but with Kelvin Beachum (who is recovering from a left knee ACL injury) likely replacing Luke Joeckel and former Cowboy (the Dallas kind) Mackenzy Bernadeau likely to replace Zane Beadles who has joined up with another former Jaguar Blaine Gabbert in San Francisco at left guard there may well be a bedding period for the new combinations.

There’s certainly a lot to deal with for Jaguars Head Coach and with so many big names arriving in north-eastern Florida one would imagine the pressure to get almost immediately would be immense but GM David Caldwell was quoted recently saying that Gus Bradley’s job does rest on recording a winning record in 2016.  This came after Jaguars owner Shahid Khan claimed that a winning record was “everybody’s reasonable expectation” for the coming season.  While Caldwell’s view that the Jaguars are looking to the long term is commendable with the players the team have acquired and the coaching team they have in place the Jaguars should be looking for more than just a 9-7 record this season.  Although that record did win the AFC South last season they should reasonably expect 10 wins from a Head Coach who they signed to a one year contract extension in January even if Gus Bradley’s overall record is a less than convincing 12-36.

Super Bowl 50 an irresistible force meets an immovable object

DSC_0198Cam Newton scored was responsible for 270 points during the regular season (35 touchdown passes and 10 rushing touchdowns); it took the Broncos 14 weeks to break that number of points! As a collective the Panthers scored 500 points in their 16 regular season games, so roughly 31 points every game. So there’s the irresistible force right there, the immovable object comes in the form of the Broncos Defence who conceded just 296 points during the regular season (or roughly 19 points per game), the 4th fewest in the NFL and the 296 yards per game they allowed was the lowest in the league and gives an idea of how they made it to the Super Bowl.
The Broncos have made suffocating defence an art form this season, they recorded 52 sacks in the regular season and with edge pass rushers DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller (who combined for 18.5 sacks during the regular season and recorded 3 of the Broncos sacks on Tom Brady in the AFC Championship game) alongside Derek Wolfe (who had 5.5 sacks during the regular season) they’ve redefined quarterback pressure. 14 different players have recorded at least half a sack for the Broncos this season so Wade Phillips isn’t afraid to send any of the defence to rush opposing Quarterbacks, one of the results of pressurising Quarterbacks is that they throw inaccurate passes and as a result 9 Broncos have made Interceptions this season.
The antidote to a good pass rush is the ability to run the ball well and the Panthers have used their running game effectively this season, Offensive Coordinator Mike Shula said that he’s never had a playlist with so many different running plays on it before and his NFL coaching career began in 1988). The Panthers have used 4 Running Backs this season who have combined for 1536 yards, Quarterback Cam Newton has carried for 636 yards too and Wide Receivers have chipped in for 114 yards too (with Ted Ginn Jr recording a 43 yard rush, so look out for that in the Super Bowl). The Panthers 19 rushing touchdowns during the regular season tied 1st in the NFL and with an average of 4.3 yards per attempt the Panthers could just use the run game early on as they attempt to suss out the Broncos Defence (they won’t though, you don’t earn the nickname “Riverboat Ron” for conservative play calls).
Denver’s rush defence was the 3rd best in the league but it was nowhere near as stifling as the pass defence and they allowed on average 3.3 yards per carry, they did recover 13 fumbles though as part of their 27 takeaways and had their Offence not conspired to give possession away 31 times they would have ended the season with a much healthier +/- ratio. The Broncos Defensive Back’s were (and have been all season) incredibly physical when it came to pass coverage and Rob Gronkowski in particular was the victim of a lot of grabbing and jersey pulling which could be called by official’s in a showpiece event such as the Super Bowl (about 114 million people watched last year).
Carolina’s Defence rattled up a very impressive 39 turnovers, 24 of which were Interceptions and 4 of those were returned for touchdowns with All Pro Josh Norman recording 2 scores during the regular season and general all round superstar middle linebacker Luke Kuelchy adding 2 postseason return touchdowns to the 1 he made during the regular season. Kuelchy is going to be vital with Thomas Davis Jr suffering a broken arm in the NFC Championship game (he will probably play, but how many snaps he can play is not entirely clear yet) and Peyton manning loving to throw to Broncos Tight End Owen Daniels, particularly near the end zone (both of Daniels catches against the Patriots were also both of the Broncos touchdown receptions) Kuelchy’s ability to ball hawk and break on any loose passes may well win the game.
Last week the Broncos progressed to the Super Bowl on the back of a Stephen Gostkowski missed extra point even though their Defence was the dominant faction of the game, their Offence were forced to punt 9 times and as the game wore on a miracle recovery by the Patriots looked increasingly possible. The Panthers on the other hand have dominated the NFC playoffs and have scored 80 points in 2 games whilst conceding just 39 so they should favourites, right? Well they are favourites but the Broncos close call last week will definitely focus their minds and with Peyton Manning possibly playing his last NFL game (or maybe his last as a Bronco) they will definitely be up for it.
It’s impossible to predict who will win this game before it’s started largely because whoever scores first will be vitally important, if the Broncos score first they’ll just send as much pressure as possible at Cam Newton because he hasn’t seen this much pass rush all season but if the Panthers score first the Broncos will have to break their usually ultra conservative game plan in order to catch up and they will make for a fun game and possibly a nail biting finish.

AFC Championship Game New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

DSC_0198Tom Brady and the Patriots don’t give opponents many chances to win games against them so the fact the Kansas City Chiefs could have had 2 interceptions against Tom Terrific last weekend was rather surprising. Even more surprising was how the team who had made 22 interceptions during the regular season didn’t force a single turnover in Foxboro, Sean Smith and Tamba Hali both had chances to cling on to wayward passes and if Hali had hauled in his chance it would have been a race to the end zone between him and the 38 year old Brady.
The Patriots were the 3rd highest scoring team in the NFL during the regular season (with only Carolina and Arizona scoring more the highest scoring the AFC, 42 points ahead of the Steelers) scoring almost 30 points per game while the Broncos Offence was the 19th highest scoring in the league, averaging just over 22 points per game. The Broncos Defence on the other hand was the 3rd tightest in the AFC allowing just 296 points all season (18.5 per game) while the Patriots allowed almost 20 points per game and were ranked 6th in the AFC.
Similar to the NFC Championship game both these teams have different approaches to Offence, particularly since LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis got injured the Patriots have largely relied on the ability of Tom Brady to pass teams to death (his pass yards make up 77% of their total yards on Offence) and with 36 touchdown passes they lead the NFL. In addition to leading the league in scoring passes the Patriots also threw the fewest number of interceptions in the league with just 7 during the regular season (the Broncos’ 23 was the most). The Patriots have been susceptible to good pass rushes though, they allowed 38 sacks in the regular season and the 52 sacks the Broncos made was 3 more than the 2nd ranked team in the NFL (the Patriots) so Wade Phillips will fancy his chances of getting some pressure and forcing some mistakes on Brady. The Broncos on the other hand will look to their Running Backs C.J Anderson (who loves the cold weather) and the speedy Ronnie Hillman who have been responsible for 27% (and 33% of their Offence’s touchdowns) of the Broncos Offensive yards this season to move the ball. The Broncos Defence scored 6 touchdowns during the regular season to take some of the pressure off the stuttering Offence but Chris Harris Jr who has a touchdown from one of his two interceptions this season and also forced 2 fumbles has an injured shoulder and even if he can play won’t be fully fit (some reports suggest his injury is so bad that he’s unable to brush his teeth). Former Patriot Aqib Talib has made 3 interceptions and returned 2 of them for touchdowns this season so Tom Brady will do well to avoid his side of the field.
Brady and Manning have met 16 times during their NFL careers and Brady leads the head to head battle 11-5 including winning all 4 times they’ve been pitted against each other in the playoffs, however Brady hasn’t win an away meeting since 2007. If the Patriots take the lead in this game then I think it’ll be difficult for the Broncos to fluster Brady, with Amendola, Edelman, Gronkowski and even bit players like White, Chandler and LaFell the Broncos just won’t have enough players who can pass cover (who knows the Patriots might even try to run the ball with Steven Jackson) and the “Evil Empire” as some Jets fans like to call the team from Foxboro should make yet another Super Bowl. However if the Broncos Defence can get on top early and maybe even score a touchdown or 2 the pressure is bound to get to the Patriots as the game goes on. If the Broncos can build any sort of lead then Wade Phillips will surely unleash blitz after blitz in Brady’s direction making it tricky for the Patriots to keep the ball out of Peyton Manning’s hands and he could well get the fairytale Super Bowl ending he’s so obviously dreaming of.

AFC Divisional game #2 – Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

DSC_0198Pressure does funny things to people; Carson Palmer for instance threw 2 Interceptions yesterday, something which it took him 3 whole games to do during the regular season as the Packer defensive line bought their pass rush to the desert. The Denver Broncos always bring the pass rush and their 52 sacks (roughly 4 a game) was the most in the NFL during the regular season. Usually the way to combat an aggressive pass rush would be to run the ball as much as possible to try to fatigue the opposing defensive front but with Pittsburgh’s “hit and get hit” confrontational style of football taking its toll on their Offensive personnel for what seems to be the umpteenth time in as many season’s they’ll struggle to run the legs off a Broncos Offensive line that includes 4 players with 5 or more sacks in the regular season. The Steelers Offence has done a decent job of protecting their Quarterback’s (they’ve had 3 different one’s during the course of the regular season) and the 33 sacks they allowed was the 6th fewest number in the league during the regular season. However last week against the Bengals they allowed 4 sacks for a combined loss of 38 yards and one of which caused Ben Roethlisberger to sprain his right shoulder and that will likely be the key to this game.

 
The Steelers have been missing players at different stages of the season but this week they will be without Pro Bowl Running Back Le’Veon Bell, Pro Bowl Centre Maurkice Pouncey (who hasn’t played since August), Pro Bowl Wide Receiver Antonio Brown and the replacement for Le’Veon Bell, another Pro Bowler, DeAngelo Williams. With those 4 players available and Roethlisberger 100% fit the Steelers would be more than a match for the Broncos team in their own backyard but with almost half their starting Offence missing it’ll be impossible to beat the team who finished 2nd in the AFC. Back in week 15 The Steelers did turnover the Broncos in Denver but that was largely on the back of 189 receiving yards and 2 the touchdown passes that Brown hauled in.

 
While there’s a real chance that this won’t be a nail biter like the Wild Card game the Steelers were involved in last week it should still be fun to watch if only because the Steelers Defence can be extremely dynamic and with Peyton Manning starting at Quarterback for the first time since week 10 where he went 5/20 the Broncos Offence may not dominate. If Manning is able to run a Gary Kubiak Offence that seems more functional than attractive and fairly conservative then players like Emmanuel Sanders (who rattled up 181 receiving yards last time they met) and Demaryius Thomas could be very productive, if Manning’s struggles continue however then the Steelers defence might keep them in the game for the first 3 quarters but with 15 players on IR and a weekly injury report including a further 11 players the altitude will fatigue them late on and the Denver Defence won’t afford them any sort of lead to defend late on. If the Steelers are able to use Ben Roethlisberger to his full ability then they may score enough points to worry the Broncos because Markus Wheaton and Darrius Heyward-Bey have the searing pace to stretch the field and Martavis Bryant has the physical attributes to out-jump any defender in the back of the endzone.

AFC Divisional Playoff #1 – Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots

Knile Davis must be hoping the Chiefs win the toss and elect to receive the kick today after he became the first person to return the opening kick of the postseason for a touchdown last weekend. Perspicaciously one of the major keys to this game will be who starts fastest, some points from the Chiefs Special Team unit or Defence will be vital if they are to cause the first upset of the Divisional weekend. Kansas City have got one of the highest scoring Defence’s in the NFL this season and last week (against an admittedly shambolic Texans team) they created 5 turnovers and while Tom Brady couldn’t even try to play as badly as Brian Hoyer did last week the Chiefs defence haven’t concede more than 22 points since week 4 and are a large reason for their team’s 11 week winning streak. Alex Smith and the Chiefs’ Offence has not had a particularly bad season either mind you and last week his 77% pass completion rate set a new record in the NFL Playoffs and while Wide Receiver Jeremy Maclin suffered a painful high ankle sprain Tight End Travis Kelce is the current receiving yard leader after 1 week of the Postseason with his 128 yards from 8 catches, could mini-Gronk out Gronk the Gronk today? The issue that Kansas City has had on Offence for large parts of the season is that they have struggled to hit the ground running and it’s not until Alex Smith sparks them with a long run that they seem to click, the chances of the Patriots Defence allowing Smith to settle enough to spark them are pretty slim though.
The pragmatist in me says that the Patriots with home advantage are a hard nut to crack and that they’ll win what will probably be a close game with 2 strong defences on show. My romantic side however would love to see Alex Smith and Andy Reid put to bed their playoff ghosts with a victory over a Patriots team who Tom Brady has dragged to 12 wins despite losing 10 Offensive players to Injured Reserve (including 4 Running Backs) and missing Julian Edelman for 7 games, Rob Gronkowski (who was the team’s leading receiver in 7 games) missing 1 game and receiving hospital treatment on a troublesome knee injury and Danny Amendola (who lead the team in receiving yards twice) for 2 games. Brady led the NFL with Touchdown passes in the regular season with an impressive 36 and just 7 Interceptions. The Patriots rushing Offence as you may imagine having lost 4 Running Back’s to injuries has not been quite as successful, although their 14 Touchdowns on the ground is the 5th highest total in the league, but they’ve only averaged 3.7 yards per rush attempt which is the 30th best in the NFL this season.
The Chiefs do have previous against the Patriots, the last time they played them in September 2014 they not only beat them, they thrashed them 41-14. That was in Arrowhead Stadium though and usually teams who travel to Foxboro face the prospect of adverse weather conditions, the Chiefs however may be glad to be playing somewhere warmer than their home town. Despite being separated by 1,429 miles average climate conditions in January don’t vary too much between Kansas City and Foxboro although there’s usually more precipitation in the North East, but today the temperature could drop as low as -9 Celsius in KC while in Foxboro it should be a balmy 4 degrees at game time which could mean that the team who runs the ball best will prosper.

 

It’s going to be fascinating to watch and in terms of closely matched teams these 2 are almost perfect, both will be relying on a committee of Running Back’s, both have fascinating plot strands running through them which would lead to a suitable denouement. Chiefs’ safety Eric Berry was battling Leukaemia less than 12 months ago, since Alex Smith left San Francisco for Kansas City the 49ers have essentially imploded as an organisation and since the Eagles have recently fired the man they hired to replace Andy Reid after 2 lacklustre season’s. The Patriots have had to overcome a litany of injuries and their hero Tom Brady still has the fallout of the Deflate-gate saga hanging over his head in the shape of an appeal hearing in March plus their Running Back Steven Jackson is 32 and hasn’t played in the playoffs for 11 years since his rookie season with the St. Louis Rams! The prospect of the game being one or lost by a spectacular moment of brilliance or a total meltdown are what makes knock out football great and whilst I will be cheering everything the Chiefs do as loudly as I did at Wembley way back in October (they gave me a free flag and I’m easier to bribe than an IAAF official) theirs is exactly the sort of bubble the Patriots love to burst.