Summer tours, the final chapters (continued)

Australia and Ireland are playing the only live Test series this weekend after Ireland’s victory in the second Test last week. Australia’s tight 5 have been a real thorn in the side of an Irish team who rolled over opposition seemingly at will during the 6 Nations and along with Marius Van Der Westhuizen’s laissez-faire approach to tacklers rolling away (or not) they provided David Pocock with a near perfect return to Test rugby as he turned over Irish ruck seemingly at will (Ireland conceded 21 turnovers in all on that occasion). In the second Test however they conceded just 9 as specialist 7 Dan Leavy replaced Jack Conan and CJ Stander returned to his natural position of number 8 (although it should be mentioned that kiwi ref Paul Williams’ penchant for whistle blowing made for a much more staccato game and cleaner rucks for Conor Murray to walk with).

This week Ireland have gone back to the back row that struggled in the first Test but with Pascal Gauzere in charge of the whistle this week team selection maybe a secondary factor in terms of the outcome of this game. Gauzere refereed the Top 14 semi final between Montpellier and Lyon and the home certainly appeared to benefit from a few decisions as Montpellier were awarded 13 penalties compared to Lyon’s 8.

The Irish backline is bolstered by the return of Jacob Stockdale who was missed last week especially when Ireland found themselves hammering away at the Australian try line and missed the rapier like Stockdale, instead they had to repeatedly use the blunt instruments like Stander and Furlong who eventually crashed over for the winning try. Ireland also welcome back the defensive wall who is Bundee Aki at 12, which moves Robbie Henshaw out into the 13 channel where he looks far less comfortable than Garry Ringrose and that is the key indicator of where Joe Schmidt and this Ireland squad are just 15 months out from a World Cup.

I think Schmidt is trying to get new combinations to dovetail to improve the depth of his squad, the only slight surprise is that the 2 most important people in his squad start this weekend in Murray and Jonny Sexton but after the chasing Australia gave Ireland when Schmidt rested Sexton in the first Test maybe he’s hoping Sexton can inspire the unsettled players to a higher level of performance than Joey Carberry could.

Ireland are the bookmakers favourite for this game and Gauzere’s Northern Hemisphere interpretations at the breakdown may well benefit the tourists but I think Hooper, Pocock and the man mountain Lukhan Tui in the backrow should cause chaos that Peter O’Mahoney alone won’t be able to counter.

103 days ’til the Rugby World Cup. But who’s counting?

rugby

Predicting who will win a tournament that doesn’t start for over 3 months, a full month before the Rugby Championship has even began in the Southern Hemisphere and when no coaches have even finalised their squad’s would be utter madness, but hey there’s not much going on in my world at the moment, so here goes.
Group A seems a logical place to start and when it was drawn it was immediately given the moniker “group of death” (original, eh?) but for me it has since become more of a group of opportunity with the winner facing a Quarter Final against either Samoa, the USA or Scotland and a possible Semi Final against Ireland. 3 of the top 6 teams in World rugby will be vying for 2 qualification spots so one of the big teams will miss out and with Fiji currently 11th in the world rankings and Fijian players standing out in Super Rugby, the Top 14, the Pro 12 and the Aviva Premiership it’s hard to rule them out of contention in the group either.
Australia, England and Wales are 3 of the top 6 teams in the World at the moment (according to the World Rugby rankings) and as somebody who’s taken a keen interest in the Super Rugby season I can honestly say I can’t remember a more disappointing showing from the Australian franchises in recent times. Australia are currently ranked 6th with Wales 5th and England 4th, so theoretically Australia should be the team to miss out however English player’s are doing their damndest to make Stuart Lancaster’s coaching job neigh on impossible.
Between Wales selecting players who could have been in England’s squad and English players getting themselves injured, banned or arrested England (who should be favourites with home advantage) are now having to cobble together a team from players who even 6 weeks wouldn’t have been expecting to make the training party let alone starting against Fiji in a little under 15 weeks.
This leaves Wales who showed why it’s impossible to predict what they will do in this year’s 6 Nations tournament. After a mediocre last 60 minutes against England which resulted in a 16-21 loss in Cardiff they improved progressively, building to a crescendo when a Liam Williams inspired team thrashed Italy 61-20 in Rome in the final round of games.
The major concern for Wales is the injuries they have accumulated over the last season. Samson Lee was injured in their first 6 Nations game and has been recuperating and rehabbing from an Achilles tendon operation for 5 months, fellow tight head Rhodri Jones has not played during the second half of the season after dislocating a shoulder, Outside Centre Jonathan Davies has been ruled out of the World Cup after rupturing his cruciate ligaments playing for Clermont and the highest profile injury (possibly in World rugby) George North. He’s the youngest Welsh player to win 50 caps at the unfeasibly young age of 22 has not played since March after suffering a 3rd concussion in 4 months and as he’s yet to pass all the concussion protocols his health is rightly taking precedent over his career. Injuries are probably less of a concern for Wales than they are for most teams though because their current style of play is designed to be more about the system than the personnel in that system, the one area of real concern is the front row and if Samson Lee and Rhodri Jones are unable to play any part in the tournament then Welsh chances will almost evaporate in front of them.
Fiji are and always have been a team comprised of fantastically talented individuals who are not always able to become a team that matches the sum of their parts. If they can maximise their talents then with players like the 6ft 5 inch and 20 plus stone Nemani Nadolo, 6ft 5 and near 19 stone Taqele Naiyarovo will be almost unstoppable for opposing wingers, just as they have in Super Rugby this season.

Beyond the fact that they have 2 players who ply their trade in Pro D2 in France and that they only have 2 players over the age of 30 in their squad there’s not really much to say about Uruguay but hopefully this tournament will serve as a learning experience for their young squad or maybe a shop window and more of them will be seen playing in top European league’s in the not too distant future.  For the very near future though I fear they will be the whipping boys of the group.
I’m hoping that the Wales are at full strength and their level of performance in all of their group games is the same one they met in Rome in March, but as everyone knows Wales, good fortune and major tournaments are very rarely in the same place so I suspect home advantage will be enough to see England topping the group of death (I’m also predicting no actual deaths will occur in the group). The second place team will have a terrifically difficult Quarter Final ahead of them, probably against South Africa who love a World Cup and the likely winner of this dubious prize will be whoever wins when Wales meet Australia in Twickenham on Saturday October the 10th. Unless Australia’s players have a serious turnaround in form and fortune then Wales should be the ones who get to look forward to the tough Quarter Final at Twickenham the following Saturday.