2021 NFL Wildcard weekend – Colts @ Bills

As a big fan of lazy tropes I can’t shake the feeling an aging Phillip Rivers will struggle in freezing temperatures at Bills Stadium on Saturday afternoon and it’s not just the Quarterback who has a tough task ahead of him in western New York, Colts kicker Rodrigo Blankenship has only made 1 field goal of 50 yards or longer this season having attempted just 3. Now part of that is because the Colts have converted 61.5% of their 4th downs this season so Frank Reich hasn’t felt the need to attempt long range shots very often. Tyler Bass for the Bills on the other hand has made 4 field goals over 50 yards from 6 attempts and his longest successful attempt this season is a 58 yarder, although that was kicked indoors against Arizona.

As much as focusing on both kickers seems incongruous in a win or go home playoff game there’s a very real possibility the result will be determined by the effectiveness of the special teams. Both teams have had very efficient Offences this season who have leant on their passing games to score the majority of their touchdowns.

The Bills have scored 40 TD’s through the air as opposed to 16 on the ground and the Colts have 24 pass TD’s and 20 with the running game. On the other side of the ball the Colts Defence appears to be tougher to break down than their hosts this week have, the Colts have allowed 500 fewer yards than the Bills and five fewer rushing TD’s, however the Colts have allowed 160 more yards through the air and 1 more touchdown reception than the Bills. So it should be a very even matchup, however according to the strength of schedule of their opponents the Colts had the easiest schedule in the NFL this season and their last loss was a road game in a cold, clear Pittsburgh on boxing day.

Bookmakers have set the points spread at 6.5 which seems quite high to me, the Colts Defence has really only been overrun once and that was back in week 12 when the Titans scored 45 points against them when a lot of players were missing including the talismanic defensive lineman DeForest Buckner. I’m expecting a Bills win but it would be a surprise if it will be as comprehensive a win as their last 10 games have been (by at least 10 points).

Fantasy football

So it’s nearly time for the first online NFL Draft which could could provide some hilarity and more than a few very frustrated and bamboozled middle aged coaches and GM’s. The NFL have said that for the first time in the history of the Draft they will stop the clock if there are unforeseen circumstances which cause team’s issues when making picks so it could also be one of the most protracted first rounds ever, so there’s something to look forward to! Last week I tried to predict (although in fairness I readily admit that I guessed wildly) so this week I thought I’d think aloud about which players I’d like to see with different teams even if there’s no chance of them actually ending up there.

I’m a big fan of Jalen Hurts and I think there’s a very good chance he will surprise a few of the experts and be a success wherever he lands but I would really like to see him in Indianapolis. Hurts looked very good in patches at Alabama but had a fairly big hiccup in the National Championship game and was bailed out by Tua and that seemed to be held against him despite him returning the favour in the 2018 SEC Championship game against Georgia. Last season he played for Oklahoma and while he wasn’t exactly Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray he actually looked to be playing at quite a high level in a team that wasn’t as star studded as it had been in the previous two seasons. They finished the season with a 12-2 record and lost in the Peach Bowl to eventual champions LSU, Hurts threw 32 TD’s with 8 interceptions and ran for another 20 and even caught a TD so hardly a terrible season but he’s still not projected as a high pick with Tua, Herbert and Jordan Love ahead of him.

The Colts have already signed Phillip Rivers as a stop-gap for one season so a young QB to learn from such an experienced campaigner the way Patrick Mahomes did behind Alex Smith would be ideal. Two more major plus points for any young QB who the Colts draft are that GM Chris Ballard has made a speciality out of building a team to win the battle at the line of scrimmage, possibly as a result of seeing Andrew Luck take so much punishment during his career the Colts now have a very sturdy Offensive line and Head Coach Frank Reich who was a QB in the league for 13 years and has developed a reputation as something of a Quarterback whisperer as a coach and he was the Offensive Coordinator in Philadelphia when the Eagles beat the Patriots 41-33 in Super Bowl LII. There’s almost no chance Hurts does land in Indianapolis and as they’ve already traded away their first round pick a project QB won’t be anywhere near the top of their list but they do have 2 picks in the first 12 of the second round.

A more pressing need for the Colts is probably Wide Receiver with T.Y Hilton approaching his 31st birthday and the strain of being the major receiving threat in Indianapolis since 2012 starting to take its toll whoever takes over from Rivers could use a consistent number 1 receiver and unless they trade up for one of the most promising prospects Michael Pittman could be a very useful guy who will probably be available when the Colts first pick comes around at number 34.

Speaking of high end WR talent I would personally love to see at least 2 of the best 3 land with top QB’s but that is highly unlikely unless there are some blockbuster trades happening in the top half of the first round (which seems highly unlikely), but this is my fantasy world remember so we live in hope. It would be great to see the Packers actually try to help Aaron Rodgers and giving him another elite receiver like CeeDee Lamb to pair with Davante Adams would go some way towards doing that but it’s highly unlikely they will. For a team who won 13 games last season the Packers have a lot of needs in this Draft and they’ve only got 2 picks in the first 93 (!) they do have 8 picks in the later rounds though so they could trade up to try and at least solidify the O-line.

Carson Wentz is another QB who needs more reliable receiving options, the Eagles ended last season with former College QB Greg Ward playing as a receiver and after an injury crisis they had 9 different WR’s who caught passes. Going into the 2020 their most established WR is DeSean Jackson who will be 34 in December and hasn’t played a full season since 2013! Jerry Jeudy would be really interesting to watch in an Offence with Carson Wentz and coached by Doug Pederson. With a real deep threat to clear space for Zach Ertz, Miles Sanders and Boston Scott the Eagles could return to the sort of high powered Offence that saw them overpower the Patriots not so long ago.

2019 NFL Divisional round – Game 1 Colts @ Chiefs

Sexy Quarterback play doesn’t usually mean much in January but with Andrew Luck and Patrick Mahomes meeting in this game you get the feeling that there will be some pretty football on show. The weather in Kansas City won’t make it easy to throw the ball a long way through the air though as it may snow and the temperature doesn’t look to be moving above freezing all day.

If this game is affected by weather and Mahomes no look passes are replaced by a battle between the big guys at the line of scrimmage then the Running Back’s will be as important as the Quarterbacks and there could be a Kareem Hunt sized whole in the Chiefs line up. Just when it looked like Andy Reid was rolling toward a successful playoff run TMZ release a video of the Running Back’s behaviour that leads to the end of Hunt’s Chiefs career. Hunt’s release changed the balance of Reid’s Offence at the most vital part of the season. When Hunt was playing he scored 7 rushing Touchdowns and another 7 recieving, since his departure the Chiefs have struggled to find such a potent pass catching threat out of backfield and if the conditions dictate a game plan involving a lot of running and short passes the Colts defence should be able to keep a lid on the home team. For their part the Colts have actually been running an Offence which values short passes and relies on Marlon Mack and the Offensive line to tire out opposing Defensive fronts, Mack averaged 4.4 yards per carry in the 12 games he played in 2018 and last week he rattled up 148 of the Colts 200 yards on the ground!

The Colts physical Offensive line play combined with the Chiefs poor run defence is why a lot of experts are backing a road win for the Colts and that certainly seems to be a logical conclusion. The bookmakers have the Chiefs as short oddd favourites probably as they finished the regular season with the best Offence in the league and with only 1 defeat at home. I think the weather will be the big winner in this game and while I’d expect the Colts Offensive line and platoon of Running Back’s to keep score a few Touchdowns and the ball away from Mahomes last week proved that logic doesn’t always apply to playoff games. I’m hoping the Colts continue their playoff run because its about Adam Vinatieri appeared in another Super Bowl, but I’m definitely expecting something screwy to happen in this game.

NFL Playoffs – Wildcard Weekend. Game 1 – Colts @ Texans

Playoff games between divisional rivals are usually slightly disappointing because both teams are so familiar with each other. However this meeting promises to be a very even matchup as the aggregate score in their divisional meetings this season is 58-58 and in an interesting twist both teams won in their opponents’ stadium! The Texans kick-started their season with a week 4 win in Indianapolis, an overtime victory that began their 9 game winning streak. They didn’t lose again until the Colts visited NRG Stadium in week 14 a game which would launch the Colts current 4 game winning streak.

Since their last meeting the Colts have scored 84 points (an average of 28 a game) and conceded just 44 (about 15 a game). The Texans on the other hand have scored 79 (almost 27 per game) and they’ve only conceded 57 (19 per game) so all indicators point to another close game.

Turnovers have been a problem for the Colts in the last 3 games, they’ve given the ball away 4 times, twice as many times as the Texans in the same period of time. In their 2 games this season the Texans just edged the battle of the turnovers with 3 takeaways compared to the 1 the Colts managed in both games. The Colts displayed a clear advantage in terms of pass rush though as they sacked Deshaun Watson 12 times, 5 times in the last meeting at NRG.

The porosity of the Texans Offensive line could be the deciding factor in this game and while a heavy dose of Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue out of the backfield would take the steam out of the Colts pass rush I’m not sure Bill O’Brien, who made rose to prominence as a Wide Recievers and Quarterback coach in New England can talk himself into playing smash-mouth football against a divisional rival. The Colts seem to have a new found resilience and they’ve cultivated the useful habit of winning games that they look set to lose whilst never really playing very well. O’Brien’s playoff history is a source of concern too, he has only beaten the Raiders in the postseason and that was a Raiders team shorn of a starting Quarterback and it’s best Offensive lineman, when O’Brien’s Texans have faced team’s close to full strength they’ve lost (34-16 to the Patriots in 2016 and 30-0 to the Chiefs the previous year). It’s not beyond the realms of possibility this one is decided by a field goal, or a missed field goal similar to the one that handed the Colts victory on their last visit to NRG, sometimes history does repeat itself.

AFC Wildcard Game 2 Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts

Theoretically this a matchup of a team who pride themselves on having a strong defence; the Bengals, against a team who have one of the best passing attacks in the NFL with the Colts’ Andrew Luck leading the NFL in touchdown passes this season, breaking Peyton Manning’s franchise records for pass yards in one season and in doing so breaking the Colts record for consecutive games with 300 or more yards passing. However when the teams met at Lucas Oil Stadium in week 7 the Bengals defence was treated with serious contempt as the Colts rushed for 171 yards on their way to a comprehensive 27-0 victory!
It’s being billed as a clash of 2 Pro Bowl Quarterbacks but apart from sharing a Christian name there’s nothing really comparable about them, mainly due to the ways both teams go about their business. Luck and the Colts offence lead the NFL in pass yards this season while Dalton’s Bengals were 21st in that category a full 1473 yards behind. Dalton was also 21 touchdown passes Luck, this is largely due to the Bengals reliance on their run game, they were ranked 6th in the NFL with an average of 134.2 yards per game on the ground and only Seattle scored more rushing touchdowns with rookie Jeremy Hill’s total of 9 only being bettered by Marshawn Lynch and DeMarco Murray. The one similarity both Luck and Dalton both have is neither of them have performed to their potential during the postseason, in the 6 games they’ve appeared in between them they have combined for 1,780 yards, 7 touchdowns and a mesmerising 14 interceptions! In Luck’s favour he has actually won 1 playoff game and he’s responsible for 6 of those touchdowns and 1,062 of the 1,780 yards.
This season the Bengals pass defence was ranked 20th in the league after allowing 243 yards per game but the 18 touchdowns they allowed through the air was the 3rd fewest in the NFL, they did allow the 4th most rushing touchdowns though so the reason not many touchdown passes were scored on them may have been because teams didn’t feel the need to pass in the redzone. The Colts had the 12th best pass defence in the NFL this season and the 18th best rushing defence but their redzone defence as hardly been earth shattering just 1 playoff team (the one with the losing, the Panthers) have conceded more points than the 369 points they have allowed.
Dalton and the Bengals have racked up an impressive 5 road wins this season but the Colts haven’t lost on their home field since week 2 and while neither quarterback is exactly reliable when it comes to the playoffs Luck and the Colts have their astonishing 45-44 win in last year’s Wildcard game when they scored 35 points in the 2nd half to inspire them and propel them toward a Divisional Championship game in Foxboro next weekend.